IMF expects Oman’s economy to rebound next year

October 31, 2017

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Oman’s economy to expand by 3.7 per cent in 2018, above the projected average GCC growth of 2.2 per cent and second highest in the region after Kuwait for next year.

The Fund projected flat growth for Oman’s economy this year.

Oman’s non-oil GDP is likely to grow 2.5 per cent in 2017 and by 3.5 per cent next year. Oil GDP is projected to decrease by 2.8 per cent this year and to grow by four per cent in 2018, the IMF said in its Regional Economic Outlook released on Tuesday.

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The projected decline in the sultanate’s oil GDP this year is mainly attributed to a decline in Oman’s oil output at around 970,000 barrels per day from above 1mn barrels per day in 2016, the IMF report showed. The Fund expects Oman’s oil output to rise to 1.01mn barrels per day in 2018.

The IMF forecasts Oman’s fiscal break-even oil price to remain at US$83.6 per barrel this year compared with US$88.9 per barrel in 2016. The sultanate’s break-even oil price is likely to further decline to US$76.3 per barrel in 2018, but will continue to remain second highest in the GCC region after Bahrain, according to the IMF.

Oman’s fiscal deficit for 2017 is projected at 13 per cent of the country’s GDP and expected to decline at 11.4 per cent of GDP in 2018. This is compared with a higher deficit of 21.6 per cent of GDP in 2016. The sultanate’s consumer price inflation, the IMF said, is likely to average at 3.2 per cent in 2017 and 2018.

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